Grayscale has introduced staking to its ether and solana investment products, becoming the first firm to offer staking through U.S.-listed spot crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs).

The update applies to the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE), Ethereum Mini Trust ETF (ETH), and Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL), which were already available to investors.

Grayscale’s ETHE has an estimated $4.82 billion in net assets, while its mini trust has $3.31 billion. Its GSOL trust has $122.5 million in assets under management.

By adding staking, Grayscale gives investors a way to earn rewards from blockchain networks without directly holding or managing the underlying assets.

Staking is central to how proof-of-stake blockchains like Ethereum and Solana operate. Users who stake their funds help validate transactions and keep the network secure, and earn tokens in return.

Grayscale says it will stake assets passively through institutional custodians and a network of validator providers, aiming to maintain network support while meeting fund objectives. ETHE and ETH offer exposure to ether, while GSOL holds solana and is currently traded over-the-counter.

GSOL could become one of the first listed Solana ETPs with staking if approved for exchange trading, as the firm has filed to convert the fund.

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Big weekend buzz: Bitcoin (BTC) shot up to record highs, and its dominance rate ticked up too, signaling fresh bias toward the top cryptocurrency.

But the headline wasn’t just about crypto — Japan’s new prime minister openly backing "Abenomics" was an even bigger deal. That means the world’s three largest economies — the U.S., China, and Japan — are now all leaning toward easing policies. That’s a strong tailwind for asset prices across the board.

If that’s not enough to stir excitement, on-chain data shows whales are slowing their coin spending. As Glassnode points out, “Mid-sized #BTC holders are accumulating strongly, whale distribution has moderated, and smaller entities remain neutral. This points to fresh structural demand emerging despite continued large holder selling.”

Put all that together, and it’s a pretty strong rebuttal to fears that bitcoin is on the brink of a year-long bear market, consistent with the so-called four year halving cycles.

Keep in mind, previous bear markets were sparked by counterparty risks. Is there one looming now? I’ll leave that for you to ponder.

Switching gears to altcoins, Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, noted that “ether treasuries now own more circulating supply of the token versus bitcoin treasuries. The market is maturing and capital rotation is deliberate.”

On the investment front, digital asset products recorded a record $5.95 billion of inflows last week, according to CoinShares data — that’s the biggest weekly inflow ever.

Looking at individual tokens, Tron’s TRX aimed to break above its 50-day SMA, building on Wednesday’s rally, boosted by activity on the newly launched SunPerp platform. Meanwhile, Lido’s LDO token, which surged 7% late last week, lost steam over the weekend and slid 3% in the last 24 hours. Notably, on Friday, VanEck registered a statutory trust for an ETF tied to Lido Staked Ethereum.

Meanwhile, Tokenomics issued a warning about some major single unlocks ahead — over $5 million each for tokens like APT, ATH, LINEA, BABAY, BB, HOME, IO, and MOVE — which traders may want to watch closely.

In the traditional markets, the Japanese yen slipped against the U.S. dollar even as Japan’s Nikkei index hit record highs. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures inched up 0.12% despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

Stay alert!

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Oct. 6: Cronos (CRO) is discontinuing CronoScan in favor of Cronos Explorer.
  • Oct. 6, 4 a.m.: The Floki (FLOKI) team is hosting its monthly AMA on Telegram.
• Macro
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is currently holding a non-binding "temperature check" vote on a proposal to deprecate Compound V2. Voting ends Oct. 6.
• Unlocks
  • No major unlocks.
• Token Launches
  • Oct. 6: Everlyn AI (LYN) to be listed on Binance Alpha, BingX, MEXC, and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Oct. 6: Capital Pioneer's Digital Assets Summit 2025 (London)
• Day 1 of 2: London Fintech Summit

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• Altcoins traded in a muted fashion on Monday following a volatile weekend; several tokens including PUMP, ENA, NEAR and XMR lost more than 5% over the past 24 hours while ZEC, BNB and MNT posted modest gains.
• The average relative strength index (RSI) is now at 52.17 out of 100 as it exits overbought territory and edges into the neutral zone, according to CoinMarketCap.
• As the altcoin market begins to consolidate, bitcoin dominance rose by 0.16% on Monday as traders swap speculative tokens for the industry's largest cryptocurrency, which is on the cusp of a breakout to record highs.
• One of the market outliers from the past week has been ASTER, the token tied to its namesake's perpetual exchange. ASTER slumped over the weekend amid wash trading allegations but has since recovered after the it was listed for trading on Binance.
• Another token in the spotlight of late has been plasma (XPL). The stablecoin-focused blockchain fended off negative sentiment around founding team token sales, rising from $0.85 to $0.94 on Sunday before settling at around $0.88 on Monday.

Derivatives Positioning

• Bitcoin's weekend rise to record highs was accompanied by an upswing in open interest in perpetuals listed on major exchanges, with funding rates rising to the highest level since mid-August. Ether OI, however, held flat, maintaining the downtrend since late August.
• On a 24-hour basis, OI in major tokens, excluding BNB and XRP, has held flat to negative. BNB's OI has increased by over 10%, pointing to continued capital inflows into the market.
• XRP's OI nearly hit the 3 billion XRP mark for the first time since July.
• One worrying sign: Except BNB, MNT, CRO, and TRX, other top 30 tokens have seen a negative cumulative volume delta in the past 24 hours. That's a sign of net selling pressure in the market.
• On the CME, BTC October futures (standard contract) traded on a positive note, taking cues from the bullish spot price action over the weekend. The contract, however, had yet to reach its peak of around $125,955, hit on August 15.
• On Deribit, pricing for BTC options suggested a 3% price swing during the week ahead. Despite BTC hitting new highs, only short-term options showed a bias for calls, while those from Oct. 17 retained a moderate put bias. ETH risk reversals displayed a similar mood.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.27% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $124,092.00 (24hrs: +0.85%)
• ETH is up 0.66% at $4,567.54 (24hrs: +0.5%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.17% at 4,346.29 (24hrs: +0.24%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps at 2.82%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0043% (-4.7495% annualized) on KuCoin

• DXY is up 0.72% at 98.43
• Gold futures are up 1.38% at $3,962.90
• Silver futures are up 0.97% at $48.43
• Nikkei 225 closed up 4.75% at 47,944.76
• Hang Seng closed down 0.67% at 26,957.77
• FTSE is down 0.11% at 9,480.56
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.36% at 5,631.27
• DJIA closed on Friday up 0.51% at 46,758.28
• S&P 500 closed up 0.01% at 6,715.79
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.28% at 22,780.51
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.03% at 30,471.68
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.3% at 2,902.44
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2.9 bps at 4.148%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.36% at 6,788.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.57% at 25,135.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.19% at 47,119.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.09% (-0.36%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03684 (0.77%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,032
• Hashprice (spot): $51.87
• Total Fees: 2.69 BTC / $332,446
• CME Futures Open Interest: 144,550 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31.6 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.93%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows Volmex's bitcoin implied volatility index, BVIV, which represents expectations for price turbulence over four weeks.
• The index remains in a downtrend trend, hovering near annualized 40%, significantly lower than 73% observed when BTC first broke above $100K late last year.
• The lower volatility signals market maturation and growing acclimatization to six-figure prices.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $380.02 (+2.14%), +2.36% at $388.98 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $145.78 (-2.63%), +4.9% at $152.93
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $36.16 (-0.99%), +4.04% at $37.62
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $64.81 (-4.56%), +2.45% at $66.40
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.82 (+0.16%), +3.51% at $19.48
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.44 (+0.99%), +3.96% at $20.21
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.82 (-1.55%), unchanged in pre-market
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $15.94 (+5.28%), +3.45% at $16.49
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $48.19 (+3.66%), +5.17% at $50.68
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.06 (-2.59%), +1.36% at $30.47

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $351.63 (-0.2%), +2.51% at $360.47
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.56 (-2.55%), +1.11% at $30.90
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $18.18 (+0.5%), +2.48% at $18.63
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $7.44 (+2.06%), +0.81% at $7.50
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.56 (-4.48%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flow: $985.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $60.01 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.33 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $233.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $14.44 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 6.74 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin Hits Record High Against Yen as Japan's New PM Sanae Plans to Revive 'Abenomics' (CoinDesk): Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s pledge to revive aggressive fiscal and monetary easing has weakened the yen and lifted bitcoin and equities to record highs.
• France’s Prime Minister Resigns Less Than a Month After Appointment (Financial Times): Sébastien Lecornu's exit followed threats from coalition allies and left-wing parties to block his government over French President Emmanuel Macron's pension reforms, reigniting France’s political turmoil and rattling investors.
• Tariffs Threatened to Be a Third Inflation Shock for Europe, But Have Had Little Impact (The Wall Street Journal): Europe’s muted inflation response to U.S. tariffs stems from governments’ decision not to retaliate, trade deals cushioning export losses, and a stronger euro offsetting import costs, ECB officials said.
• Swiss Exchange Group to Bring Digital Assets Unit SDX In-House (Bloomberg): The swiss exchange operator is integrating SDX’s blockchain platform into its core exchange and post-trade divisions to unify custody, settlement and trading of regulated digital securities across its infrastructure.

Ledn CIO John Glover, who correctly predicted recent bitcoin [BTC] price gains, has issued a stark warning that a failure to break above the $125,000 resistance could prove costly, potentially signaling the start of a bear market.

BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, tapped record highs above $125,000 over the weekend. The rally followed renewed demand for U.S.-listed spot ETFs amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and was likely boosted by pro-stimulus comments from Japan’s newly elected prime minister.

However, momentum has stalled over the past 24 hours, with prices retreating to $124,000.

According to Glover, BTC's fate is now anchored to one crucial decision point: $125,000. A decisive push above this level could bring further gains, while a rejection could lead to a more challenging bear market.

"If we do so [move above $125K], then $145k is expected sometime around the end of the year/early next year. If we reject a couple of attempts at $125k, then there is merit to the argument that we will begin a bear market for BTC," Glover said in an email, detailing his Elliott wave analysis.

Glover belongs to the bullish camp, expecting a decisive move above $125,000 followed by a year-end rally to around $145,000. However, he anticipates that a bear market will follow a move to $145,000.

Bullish case looks strong

Since July, bitcoin has surpassed $120,000 three times, including the recent move over the weekend.

While the previous two surges were quickly reversed in a sharp, inverted V-shaped pattern, the latest rally appears more convincing. Prices continue to hold above $120,000, suggesting that non-institutional demand remains strong, as noted by Singapore-based QCP Capital in their daily market update.

This points to a higher probability of sustained upward momentum, pushing prices well beyond the $125,000 level.

BNB, the token that powers the BNB Chain and is used for fee discounts on Binance, rallied over 4% in the last 24-hour period, pushing past $1,200 and touching an intraday high of $1,223.

The move was fueled by sharp volume spikes, renewed institutional interest, and rising network activity. The rally aligned with BNB Chain reclaiming its spot as the most-used blockchain by active addresses.

In September, it logged 52.5 million active addresses, surpassing Solana for the first time since August, according to TokenTerminal data. Behind the activity was a sharp rise in decentralized trading and lending on the Aster Protocol, which saw its total value locked jump 570% to $2.34 billion, per DeFiLlama.

Signs of retail momentum also appeared. One high-profile memecoin trader reportedly turned a $3,000 bet into nearly $2 million after a post by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao triggered speculative interest.

The surge comes alongside broader institutional engagement. Electric vehicle maker Jiuzi Holdings and Kazakhstan’s Alem Crypto Fund both added BNB to their treasuries.

It’s also worth noting that BNB has been benefiting, along with the wider crypto market, from expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 bps later this month, and from a recent upgrade where the BNB Chain reduced its minimum gas fee to 0.05 Gwei.

Technical Analysis Overview

BNB traded in a wide range over the session, moving between a low of $1,148.12 and a high of $1,223.08, according to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis data model.

The price closed at $1,201.13, marking a 2.27% gain over the 24-hour window. The most notable price action came as BNB pushed through $1,200 on a spike in trading volume, with one burst of activity reaching nearly five times the daily average. That surge in volume coincided with the intraday high, which now marks a key resistance zone around $1,223.

Support emerged clearly in the $1,148 to $1,158 range, where buying pressure consistently appeared throughout the session. Each dip into this zone attracted new demand, suggesting institutional orders may be layered at these levels.

The broader trend remains upward, with price action reflecting steady accumulation and a willingness by buyers to absorb volatility.

However, a sharp reversal late in the session signaled caution. After testing the $1,215 area, BNB dropped quickly back to $1,201, cutting into earlier gains.

Elevated volume during that pullback suggests profit-taking rather than panic selling, likely from larger holders capitalizing on resistance near the recent highs. Despite the retracement, BNB maintained most of its gains and held above the $1,200 mark, keeping the current rally intact.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

Hong Kong-listed company China Financial Leasing Group (2312) says it plan to raise around 86.5 million Hong Kong dollars ($11.1 million), from which it will build a cryptocurrency investment platform.

China Financial will raise the capital through a new share subscription, issuing over 69 million new shares at a price of 1.25 Hong Kong dollars each, according to a filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Approximately 94% of the net proceeds from the raise will be used for investment in securities of company in various sectors, with a focus on the crypto and blockchain industries and artificial intelligence (AI).

The company added that it intends to focus on "establishing a crypto and AI digital asset investment platform," in the announcement on Sunday.

Hong Kong has been at the forefront of jurisdictions advancing their regulation of the crypto industry, having set out plans in June to establish a regime to oversee exchanges, custodians, stablecoins and other digital asset service providers.

China Financial jumped some 34% on Monday, closing at 1.72 Hong Kong dollars, compared to the Hang Seng Index closing 0.67% lower.

Bitcoin has sustained its rally above $123,000, which it broke on Friday, finishing week 39 up 10% for its best weekly performance of the year, according to CoinDesk market data.

Crypto stocks with exposure to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and High-Performance Computing (HPC) are doing better than their peers that lack the same exposure.

Cipher Mining (CIFR) is up 5% to $15.40, set to break a new all-time highs. BitDigital (BTBT) has gained 3% to $3.61, and IREN (IREN) is up 5% to $53, also at record levels. CleanSpark (CLSK) is up more than 3% to $16.46, revisiting highs last seen in November 2024.

BTC treasury companies, which by their nature lack the same AI/HPC component, are underperforming in comparison.

Metaplanet (3350) is down 5% on Monday to 591 yen, while Strategy (MSTR) is up just 2% pre-market at $359.

So far this year, crypto-linked stocks have performed very differently: Iris Energy (IREN) has surged 382%, Cipher Mining (CIFR) 205%, Metaplanet 74%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) 17%, and Bit Digital (BTBT) 12%.

The wide gap in gains highlights how investors are favoring some Bitcoin-exposed firms over others, underscoring a growing divergence within the sector.

Crypto data giant DefiLlama earlier today pulled Aster’s perpetuals data from its tracking page after spotting XRP trading volumes that mirrored those on Binance almost tick-for-tick, raising doubts about how the newest DEX challenger was reporting activity.

If a new exchange can mirror Binance volumes too closely, it raises a question of how much of the demand is real and whether leaderboards tell the whole story.

Earlier Monday, DefiLlama’s pseudonymous founder 0xngmi noted on X that Aster’s volumes, pointing out data from XRP perpetuals, began moving in near-perfect sync with Binance’s volumes.

That alleges possible wash trading or data manipulation, since organic decentralized order flow typically diverges.

“Until we can get that data to verify if there’s wash trading, Aster perp volumes will be delisted,” 0xngmi wrote on X.

Like other perp DEXs, such as Hyperliquid, Aster lets traders take long or short positions on crypto assets with leverage, but without going through a centralized exchange.

It recently rose to the top of DefiLlama’s leaderboard for daily fees and volume across perp DEXs, even briefly overtaking Hyperliquid.

Aster’s ASTER is among the hottest tokens in the crypto market in recent weeks, zooming from 9 cents to over $2 in a little under three weeks, per CoinGecko data. That has given early buyers returns of over 1,500%, making it among the best performing tokens in several months.

XRP and ether (ETH) volumes were major contributors to Aster’s metrics.

In one wash trading risk model, Aster still showed a “low” score, but the one-to-one volume correlation with Binance raised enough red flags for a delisting. Hyperliquid, by contrast, showed a looser 0.59 correlation with Binance volumes and kept its metrics despite a “medium” score.

Meanwhile, Binance itself listed ASTER with a “Seed Tag” earlier Monday. The timing drew attention because Aster counts Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao as an advisor, and Zhao has been among Aster’s most vocal proponents on X in the past week.

ASTER price were down 10% in the past 24 hours amid a general market retreat and DefiLlama’s data delisting. All losses have since reversed after Binance announced plans to list the token.

Aster did not immediately respond to CoinDesk's request for comment

Crypto markets may be distracted by the U.S. government shutdown in the coming week. With key data from the world's largest economy not being published, traders may find difficulty in identifying big-picture catalysts for their positions.

While the shutdown means new exchange-traded funds won't be approved in the U.S., across the Atlantic U.K. retail investors will gain access to crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs) for the first time in four years. The Financial Conduct Authority rescinded a ban in August, saying the market had evolved and such products had become better understood.

Within the crypto industry, Hedera is upgrading its mainet to introduce batch transactions and Jito DAO is voting on whether to double the number of validators on the Solana infrastructure project's StakeNet platform in an attempt to "move the Jito Stake Pool into a more productive economic equilibrium."

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Oct. 6: Cronos (CRO) is discontinuing CronoScan in favor of Cronos Explorer.
  • Oct. 6, 4 a.m.: The Floki (FLOKI) team is hosting its monthly AMA on Telegram.
  • Oct. 8: U.K. retail investors regain regulated access to crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs) as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)'s four-year ban on these products ends.
  • Oct. 8, 1 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) mainnet upgrade to version 0.66.
  • Oct. 9, 12 p.m.: Cronos (CRO) team is hosting an AMA on X.
• Macro
  • Oct. 7, 10:05 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman delivers welcoming remarks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Mo. Watch live.
  • Oct. 7, 10:30 a.m.: Conversation with Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran at the Managed Funds Association (MFA) Policy Outlook 2025 in New York. Watch live.
  • Oct. 8, 9:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Michael S. Barr speech at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis. Watch live.
  • Oct. 8, 2 p.m.: Minutes from the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 FOMC meeting.
  • Oct. 9, 8 a.m.: Brazil Sept. headline inflation rate YoY (Prev. 5.13%), MoM (Prev. -0.11%).
  • Oct. 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico Sept. inflation rate. Headline YoY (Prev. 3.57%), MoM (Prev. 0.6%). Core YoY (Prev. 4.23%), MoM (Prev. 0.22%).
  • Oct. 9, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims. Initial ((for week ended Oct. 4) Est. 223K, Continuing (for week ended Sept. 27) Est. 1930K. (Report likely to be delayed due to current federal government shutdown)
  • Oct. 9, 8:30 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell delivers welcome remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. Watch live.
  • Oct. 10, 8 a.m.: Brazil Aug. PPI YoY (Prev. 1.36%), MoM (Prev. -0.3%).
  • Oct. 10, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Sept. Unemployment Rate (Prev. 7.1%).
  • Oct. 10, 10 a.m.: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Oct. (Preliminary) (Prev. 55.1).
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is holding a non-binding "temperature check" vote on a proposal to deprecate Compound V2. Voting ends Oct. 6.
  • Gnosis DAO is voting on GIP-138 to fund NodeSentinel, a validator monitoring tool used by 94 operators for 60k+ validators. Voting ends Oct. 7.
  • ZKSync DAO is voting on a proposal to allocate 25 million ZK tokens (~$1.25M) for the "Prividium Roadshow" through the end of 2026. Voting ends Oct. 8.
  • GMX is holding elections for Season 3 of its Listing Committee, which will select three members to oversee and approve new asset listings on GMX protocols.Voting ends Oct. 8.
  • Jito DAO is voting on a proposal to expand the validator set from 200 to 400 and update StakeNet’s ranking and eligibility criteria to address negative stake pool dynamics.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting to replace the DAO Committee with a 3-of-5 multisig of ecosystem representatives, shifting execution-only duties while the council retains oversight. Voting ends Oct. 10.
  • Oct. 9: Cronos (CRO) to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
• Unlocks
  • Oct. 10: Linea (LINEA) to unlock 6.57% of its circulating supply worth $27.9 million.
  • Oct. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.15% of its circulating supply worth $57.91 million.
  • Oct. 12: Aethir (ATH) to unlock 16.08% of its circulating supply worth $64.95 million.
• Token Launches
  • Oct. 8: Sky (SKY) to be listed on BitFlyer.

Conferences

• Oct. 6-7: London Fintech Summit
• Oct. 7-8: FinTech LIVE London 2025
• Oct. 8-9: Digital Assets Week London 2025
• Oct. 8-9: Fintech Forward 2025 (Bahrain)
• Oct. 9: Hedgeweek’s Digital Assets Summit US 2025 (New York)
• Oct. 9-10: North American Blockchain Summit (Dallas)
  

Polymarket bettors are putting their money on the U.S. Government remaining shut until Oct. 15, but they are also saying it will be back in operation within a month.

Bettors are giving a 72% chance to the government being back in operation on Oct, 15 or later, with $1.4 million in volume in a $4 million contract on that date range.

Another contract which asks for the length of the shutdown gives a 67% chance that it goes on for 10-29 days, and only a 27% chance that its longer than a month putting it under the record for the longest government shutdown in history which occurred during the first Trump administration.

Some market observers are pointing to the U.S. government shutdown as a reason why BTC recently rallied, hitting new highs above $125,000.

The Congress is reportedly in a stalemate with recent resolutions to fund and re-open government failing to hit the required threshold.

No, the bull run is likely not over yet. Bitcoin (BTC) has pulled back from its record highs, and some alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) have seen profit-taking. However, this appears to be a typical bull-market breather, with analysts closely monitoring the bitcoin price action around $125,000.

BTC hit record high on Sunday

Over the weekend, BTC pressed above $125,000 in a tell tale sign of traders pricing an easier monetary and fiscal policy in the U.S. against the backdrop of the ongoing government shutdown. The market likely expects easier policies across the globe, including Japan, where the new PM is biased toward Abenomics, an aggressive easing strategy implemented by the former PM Shinzo Abe.

The total crypto market capitalization rose to roughly $4.07 trillion, lifting the Fear and Greed index to 64. While that's an elevated reading, it falls well short of euphoric levels, which indicates that there is scope for more risk taking in the market. This leaves room for bullish follow-through without needing blow-off leverage to get there.

The driver under the hood still looks like spot demand and ETFs rather than a one-day squeeze, especially as BTC’s move came on a Sunday which is typically a day of thinner liquidity and lower leverage.

Less-than-usual liquidations of a relatively small $65 million on BTC-tracked futures lend credence to that opinion. However, a quick retreat on Monday still suggests that some traders are unwilling to hold onto profits for long.

Profit taking in altcoins, BNB stands out

BTC prices are down a little over 1% in the past 24 hours, with dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano’s ADA leading losses among majors. XRP, BNB Chain’s BNB and Tron’s TRX were down as much as 2%, while ether (ETH) lost just over 0.5%.

The outlier on a weekly basis remains BNB, roughly at $1,184 and up more than 17% over seven days, which tells us that rotations are still happening inside ecosystems when the base asset has a bid.

What next?

The increasing amount of dry powder, or stablecoin supply, supports the bullish case in BTC and and the broader crypto market.

Reports show stablecoin supply expanded by a record amount last quarter — about $45 billion, with roughly two-thirds of new issuance on Ethereum — and that’s the dry powder you want to see if the market is to keep going higher.

Add to that the backdrop of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown that can delay data and nudge central banks toward caution, and you get a narrative that aligns cleanly with the bullish picture on price charts.

Focus on $125K

Two expert reads mirror this setup. Nick Ruck at LVRG frames the move as a hedge bid tied to institutional flows and inflation anxiety in a take that’s consistent with ETF allocations re-accelerating on dips.

Alex Kuptsikevich at FxPro notes the technical breakout and warns that long-term holders have been selling near these levels since July. Both can be true. A range break invites supply, and a trend only survives if fresh demand absorbs it.

“The next step could well be an attempt to update historical highs approaching $125K,” Kuptsikevich noted. “At the same time, it is worth paying attention to the activity of long-term sellers, who have been actively selling near these levels since July: we may see a new episode of selling on the rise.”

The trader in me is inclined to treat $125,000 as a magnet and a test. Reach it fast and fail, and we’ll know supply is still in charge. Grind into it while funding stays sane, and it likely gives way.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record high against the Japanese yen (JPY) on Monday, leaving behind the bitcoin-dollar pair as Japan's newly elected Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae voiced support for a return to the pro-stimulus "Abenomics" strategy

Abenomics was an economic strategy introduced by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in late 2012 and early 2013 to revive the country's economy by ending decades of deflation-led stagnation. It involved the use of three arrows: aggressive monetary easing, high public spending and cheap borrowing and structural reforms to boost investment and growth potential.

Speaking at a press conference Saturday, Sanae made it clear that the government would lead fiscal and monetary policy setting, echoing the growing fiscal dominance worldwide aimed at prioritizing demand reflation.

She said that the government and the central bank must work closely to achieve "demand-driven inflation backed by rising wages and corporate profits."

The PM added that the Japanese economy is on a "tightrope," and it is appropriate to maintain accomodative monetary conditions.

Her comments have sparked hopes for fiscal easing, supported by low interest rates. According to Reuters, the probability of the BOJ raising rates this month has dropped sharply, and the bank is likely to be more cautious.

The timing couldn't be more opportune for bitcoin bulls and gold investors. With traders pricing continued Fed easing over the coming months, the prospect of renewed Japanese easing is likely to bolster demand for cryptocurrencies and precious metals.

Bitcoin hits record high, yen slides

The bitcoin-yen pair (BTC/JPY) listed on BitFlyer has reached a record high of JPY 18,640,000, extending its five-day winning streak, according to data source TradingView. Meanwhile, the Coinbase-listed BTC/USD pair traded at $123,100, significantly below the record high of over $125,000 reached over the weekend, according to CoinDesk data.

Sanae's comments also buoyed the Japanese equities, with the Nikkei index topping 48,000 points for the first time. The yen slid to a low of 150.35 per U.S. dollar, its weakest since Aug. 1.

Traders have been wary of a yen rally driven by the Bank of Japan’s potential rate hikes for at least the past two years. However, some observers argue that the Japanese yen is no longer the premier safe-haven currency it once was and has increasingly been supplanted by the Swiss franc.

Dogecoin weathered early volatility before settling into a tight band, with institutional flows anchoring support near $0.251. Whales and mid-tier wallets boosted holdings, signaling accumulation as technical patterns compress into an ascending triangle. Traders are now watching if $0.25 can harden into a launch base toward $0.27–$0.30.

News Background

DOGE traded a 5.3% range in the 24 hours to Oct. 6, 03:00, moving between $0.265 and $0.251. The token opened at $0.258, rallied briefly to $0.264, then faded into afternoon selling pressure.
By late session, support held firm in the $0.251–$0.252 zone as buying interest stabilized price near $0.254. On-chain data showed mid-tier wallets added 30M DOGE, lifting their combined holdings to 10.77B tokens, while top 1% addresses now control over 96% of supply.

Price Action Summary

• DOGE swung through a $0.014 corridor, peaking at $0.265 and bottoming at $0.251.
• Afternoon selloff dragged price lower, but $0.251–$0.252 support held on sustained buying.
• Late trading stabilized price at $0.254, hinting at floor formation.
• Final 60 minutes saw a selloff to $0.2540 followed by a modest rebound, with volumes averaging 5.2M and spiking to 33.1M during liquidation.

Technical Analysis

• Key support is anchored at $0.251–$0.252, where buyers repeatedly defended dips. Resistance sits at $0.265, with profit-taking stalling advances.
• The structure reflects tight consolidation inside an ascending triangle, confirmed by accumulation signals.
• On-chain metrics suggest positioning is shifting toward large holders, reinforcing the bullish setup. A decisive move above $0.265 could trigger targets in the $0.27–$0.30 zone.

What Traders Are Watching?

• If $0.25 continues to hold as the structural floor into U.S. hours.
• Whether whales extend accumulation beyond the 30M tokens added this session.
• A breakout attempt above $0.265 to open path toward $0.27–$0.30.
• The impact of concentrated supply (96% with top holders) on volatility around breakout levels.

XRP’s early rally into $3.07 met heavy distribution on elevated volume, leaving a high-volume ceiling intact and pulling price back to $2.98. Institutional prints confirmed $3.07 as resistance, while repeated defenses near $2.98 kept losses contained.

News Background

XRP slipped 1% from Oct. 5, 03:00 to Oct. 6, 02:00, retreating from $3.01 to $2.98 despite opening strength.

The token spiked to $3.07 in early hours, only to face concentrated selling pressure.

Analysts said institutional desks were active at resistance, with turnover 17% above daily averages. Despite bearish control through much of the session, XRP ended with a rebound off $2.98, signaling continued accumulation interest.

Price Action Summary

• XRP traded a $0.09 corridor, or 3% intraday range, between $2.98 and $3.07.
• Price peaked at $3.07 before sharp rejection on 64.3M tokens, vs. 54.7M average.
• Selling pressure dragged XRP to $2.98, where support was repeatedly defended.
• A late-session dip triggered a 1.95M-volume flush to $2.979, immediately absorbed by buyers.
• Rebound flows stabilized price near $2.98, with recovery volumes averaging 750K per bar.

Technical Analysis

• Resistance is firmly established at $3.07, validated by above-average selling pressure and repeated failures to break higher. Support holds at $2.98, where buyers consistently stepped in, including a high-volume flush absorbed late in the session.
• Price action reflects a rejection-driven pullback inside a $3.07–$2.98 band. While sellers dominated two-thirds of the session, the defense of $2.98 shows institutions continue to accumulate on dips, keeping the structure intact for another attempt higher.

What Traders Are Watching?

• Whether $2.98 holds as support in coming sessions.
• If $3.07 remains a hard ceiling or weakens under renewed pressure.
• Signs of sustained institutional inflows as ETF catalysts approach.
• Potential test of $3.10 if buyers can reclaim control above $3.03.

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.

A ruble-backed stablecoin tied to a sanctioned Russian defense bank somehow ended up sponsoring Singapore’s biggest crypto event, creating a compliance headache that exposed how easily financial sanctions blur across jurisdictions.

On Friday morning, former White House Crypto Policy Director Bo Hines took to the stage at Token2049 to extol the virtues of Tether – his new employer – and its Genius-act compliant stablecoin USAT. A guarantor of U.S. dollar hegemony, which the world seems to want, is how he described it.

A few hours later, Oleg Ogienko, A7A5's director for regulatory and overseas affairs, a ruble-backed stablecoin issuer targeted by authorities worldwide took to the stage with a very different message.

While the presence of Ogienko and the speech he gave made for a more interesting conference, a big question on everyone's mind is how his sanctioned company was able to pay for sponsorship.

A7A5, a ruble-backed stablecoin issued by Old Vector and used on the A7 LLC payments platform – which is designed to assist businesses in-country to bypass sanctions – is backed by Russia’s state-owned Promsvyazbank (PSB), a financial institution sanctioned by the U.S. and U.K and many other jurisdictions around the world for its role in financing Russia’s defense sector.

Shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Singapore broke from its decades‑old policy of neutrality and joined the West in sanctioning key Russian banks and defense‑linked entities, including state‑owned Promsvyazbank (PSB), a move that also set it apart from its ASEAN neighbours, who avoided such measures.

On March 14, 2023, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) issued notice SNR-N01 which prohibits financial entities in Singapore from interacting with major banks in Russia including Promsvyazbank (PSB) – where A7A5's reserves are kept.

Effectively, this would bar any MAS-regulated institutions and crypto service providers from facilitating or processing any transactions, sponsorships, or partnerships involving A7A5 or other PSB-backed digital assets.

But, Token2049 is organized by Hong Kong-registered BOB Group. Hong Kong, as part of China, follows Beijing's lead on sanctions, which currently maintains trade and financial ties with Russia despite Western restrictions.

Token2049 organizers did not respond to repeated requests for comment. MAS did not provide a response by press time.

While the BOB Group would be in compliance with local law in Hong Kong, other sponsors became nervous about having their brands associated with A7A5. A number of companies that spoke to CoinDesk called the presence of the stablecoin issuer a "compliance nightmare" while another said they had a "heart attack" seeing them on the site.

BOB seemed to have gotten the message, and scrubbed references to A7A5 from the sponsor list, though the Internet Archive still has it.

A7A5, for its part, still proudly lists itself as a conference sponsor on social media, including of the official Token2049 massage zone, which has, as it says, a lounge "where deals are closed while you unwind."

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin surged to a record high above $125,000, up 11% for the week, as massive inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and heightened safe-haven demand amid the U.S. government shutdown and global liquidity expectations fueled buying.

ETH: Ethereum is trading around $4,500 and is gaining attention ahead of December’s Fusaka upgrade, which VanEck says will cut rollup costs through PeerDAS, enhance scaling efficiency, and strengthen ETH’s role as the monetary backbone of the network rather than just a fee-generating asset.

Gold: Gold continues to surge, trading above $ 3,880, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid a prolonged U.S. government shutdown.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 4% to a record high after the ruling LDP chose Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, with investors betting her pro-growth “high-pressure” economic stance will keep the BOJ’s policies accommodative.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• State of Crypto: What Happens to Crypto if Government Shutdown Lingers (CoinDesk)
• Ethereum Foundation swapping $4.5 million in ETH for stablecoins to fuel growth (The Block)
• Trump Tariff Stimmy? Here’s How Much Covid Stimulus Checks Are Worth Now If Invested in Bitcoin (Decrypt)

Solana is preparing for a major overhaul that could make its famously fast blockchain even faster — and a lot easier to run.

In its "Crypto Monthly Recap for September 2025" research report published Oct. 3, global asset manager VanEck says Solana’s upcoming Alpenglow upgrade marks the biggest change to the network’s core software since launch.

The firm calls it “the largest upgrade to Solana’s consensus in its history,” pointing to six key changes that together promise faster performance, lower costs, and greater reliability.

For readers less familiar with Solana’s design, Alpenglow essentially changes how the network’s thousands of validators agree on which transactions are valid. That process, known as consensus, is being streamlined so data moves through the system more efficiently and validators can operate with less friction.

What VanEck highlighted

Faster finality. Today, Solana takes around 12 seconds to finalize a transaction, meaning to confirm it permanently.

Alpenglow cuts that to about 150 milliseconds — roughly the time it takes to blink. Faster finality makes trades, payments and app interactions feel instantaneous, bringing Solana closer to web-level responsiveness.

Off-chain voting. Validators currently vote on every new block by submitting thousands of small transactions on-chain.

That keeps the network secure but clogs bandwidth. Alpenglow moves voting off-chain, letting validators exchange votes privately and later post a single proof. This clears space for regular user transactions and helps keep network fees low.

Simpler validator costs. Instead of paying transaction fees for every vote, validators will submit a single Validator Admission Ticket each cycle.

This reduces costs and makes it easier for smaller operators to run validators, which strengthens decentralization and network security.

Streamlined communication. Solana’s nodes constantly share messages to stay in sync, a process known as “gossip.”

Alpenglow reduces this background traffic so validators spend less time and bandwidth coordinating with each other. That makes the system more stable, even when some validators go offline.

Bigger blocks. Developers plan to increase block capacity by 25% by the end of the year.

A block is a batch of transactions added to the ledger. More capacity means Solana can fit more transactions into each block, reducing waiting times and congestion.

The Firedancer client. Built by Jump Crypto, Firedancer is a second, independent version of Solana’s validator software expected to go live in late 2025.

Having two clients means the network can keep running smoothly if one experiences problems.

It also includes a proposal called SIMD-0370, which removes Solana’s fixed limit on block size. That would let the network automatically scale with faster hardware, improving long-term throughput.

P-tokens for efficiency. Solana’s current SPL tokens, used for most on-chain assets, require a lot of computing power to move.

VanEck says the new P-token format will reduce that demand by about 95 percent, freeing up space in each block and boosting total transaction capacity by roughly 10 percent. This makes token transfers cheaper and the network more efficient under heavy use.

Together, these changes show how Solana is redesigning its infrastructure to support the next generation of decentralized finance, gaming and tokenized asset applications.

What Solana’s Engineers Are Building Beyond That

VanEck’s analysis captures the key elements of Alpenglow, but Solana Labs’ Alpenglow white paper shows that the upgrade goes even deeper than the firm described. Engineers have built several behind-the-scenes changes aimed at making Solana faster, sturdier, and easier to maintain over time.

One of the most significant additions is Rotor, a new broadcast layer that replaces Solana’s existing Turbine system for spreading data among validators.

Rotor transmits information more efficiently, cutting down on duplicated packets and shortening the time it takes for new blocks to reach the entire network.

The change helps transactions confirm more smoothly and makes the network more responsive under heavy load.

Another improvement involves local signature aggregation, which allows validators to combine multiple transaction signatures before broadcasting them to the rest of the network.

Every transaction on Solana carries a digital signature proving its origin; processing each one separately consumes computing power and bandwidth. By grouping signatures together, Alpenglow lightens that workload, reducing the computational cost of maintaining security.

The upgrade also strengthens fault tolerance, ensuring that Solana continues to function even if as many as 40 percent of validators lose connectivity or temporarily go offline. This improvement makes the network more resilient during regional outages or traffic spikes, limiting the risk of downtime.

In addition, Alpenglow cuts unnecessary “gossip” traffic — the background messages validators exchange to stay in sync. Reducing this chatter not only frees up bandwidth but also helps validators in regions with slower internet connections participate effectively, broadening Solana’s global base of operators.

Finally, Solana has reworked validator participation through a ticket-based system that replaces thousands of tiny voting transactions with a single predictable admission step. This change simplifies the cost structure and lowers barriers for smaller operators, promoting fairer participation and stronger decentralization.

Taken together, these refinements transform Alpenglow from a simple speed upgrade into a full redesign of how Solana communicates internally. They show Solana Labs’ push to make the network not just fast in theory but also dependable at scale — an essential step as more financial and consumer applications move on-chain.

The Federal Reserve’s October rate decision could trigger unexpected shocks in U.S. stocks and Bitcoin as unresolved federal government shutdown risks cloud the outlook.

Government shutdown delays key data ahead of FOMC meeting

A partial federal government shutdown began on Oct. 1, shuttering many non-essential services including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This shutdown has indefinitely delayed the September jobs report — a crucial gauge of labor market health expected early this month.

This data freeze comes just weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Oct. 28–29 meeting, where the Fed’s next interest rate decision will be announced.

Despite this disruption, market optimism remains elevated.

According to GoldPrice.org, Gold prices closed at $3,886 per ounce on Friday, gaining over 48% year-to-date.

Gold’s 2025 rally reflects large central bank purchases by nations and strong ETF demand from private investors, driven by inflation concerns amid President Trump’s trade war, record U.S. national debt levels and efforts by some countries—especially BRICS members — to reduce reliance on U.S. dollar assets since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began.

At the time of writing, according to CoinDesk Data, bitcoin was trading at around $123,196, not far from the all-time-high price of $125,506, observed earlier in the day, driven by strong institutional interest and crypto ETF inflows.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed the week at record highs of 46,758.28 and 6,715.79, respectively, reflecting confidence in a smooth Fed policy transition.

Today, bitcoin, gold and the S&P 500 are at or near record highs, probably due to expectations of further rate cuts this year and next and investors wanting to hedge against the persistent and increasing inflation that seems to currently exist throughout the world.

Market consensus prices a 25 basis-point Fed cut

Futures and prediction markets overwhelmingly price in a 25 basis-point interest-rate cut at the FOMC meeting.

As of Oct. 5, The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds at 96.2% for a 25 basis-point cut and 3.8% for no change.

As for decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, it predicts a 3% chance of a 50+ bps increase, a 90% chance of a 25 bps increase and an 8% chance of no change.

Why the Fed pausing rate cuts might not be as unlikely as traders expect

The ongoing federal government shutdown conceals a significant risk. With the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employees furloughed, vital labor reports remain unreleased, denying the Fed updated wage and employment data essential for evaluating market tightness amid persistent inflation.

The Fed faces the exceptionally difficult challenge of making a rate decision without crucial economic input — essentially flying blind.

This lack of timely data raises the very real possibility that some FOMC members may advocate for pausing the current pace of rate cuts rather than continuing as expected.

Without clear visibility on the labor market’s recent trajectory, the risk of premature easing that could destabilize inflation expectations looms large. Past Federal Reserve actions during periods of data scarcity have often leaned toward caution to avoid policy missteps.

At the same time, several factors deepen this uncertainty.

The government shutdown itself creates downside risks through furloughed federal workers and potential permanent job losses, which may worsen economic growth but whose magnitude remains unclear.

Meanwhile, many investors have positioned portfolios in anticipation of further cuts, meaning a surprise pause could unsettle markets and trigger volatility the FOMC would prefer to avoid.

Balancing these concerns, the FOMC is likely weighing continuing a modest 25 basis-point cut to sustain market confidence and hedge against economic risks. Still, the pause remains a plausible outcome given these unprecedented challenges, emphasizing that market expectations of a cut, though strong, are not guaranteed.

Private and regional data provide partial insights amid shutdown

Between now and the FOMC meeting, several private-sector and Federal Reserve regional data releases will provide partial economic signals despite the shutdown.

If these indicators show cooling inflation and moderating growth, Fed Chair Jerome Powell could proceed with the widely-expected 25 basis-point cut. Stronger signals of inflation persistence or growth resilience might push the Fed toward a pause, contradicting market pricing and increasing volatility.

If the shutdown ends by, say, mid-October, the delayed official September jobs report could be released ahead of the FOMC meeting, providing a clearer data picture and potentially validating market expectations.

Why a 50 basis-point cut is highly unlikely

Markets have largely ruled out a 50 basis-point rate cut because inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, especially in services where wage pressures linger.

A half-point cut would risk signaling premature easing and could destabilize the labor market and inflationary expectations.

Powell’s public statements emphasize caution and data dependency, making a more moderate 25 basis-point cut the prudent path.

How investors can protect against a Fed pause scenario

Given the potential for a policy pause not fully priced by markets, investors —particularly in crypto — should consider hedging risk:

• Put options on bitcoin and major stock indices offer a relatively inexpensive way to guard against steep downside swings.
• Reducing high leverage or position sizing in volatile assets to mitigate drawdowns.
• Increasing exposure to safe havens such as gold or Treasury bonds can provide portfolio ballast amid market stress.
• Using volatility ETFs or funds to gain from sudden volatility spikes.

Institutional investors routinely employ such strategies; retail investors have a growing number of low-cost tools to similarly prepare for tail risks.

SWIFT, the backbone of the global financial messaging system, is taking a step toward becoming a full-fledged blockchain infrastructure provider.

This week, the network unveiled plans to build a shared ledger platform that will let banks settle transactions involving stablecoins and tokenized assets across multiple blockchains.

While SWIFT has long served as the messaging layer for cross-border money movement, the new platform would put it closer to the center of value transfer.

That’s a major shift for a more than 50-year-old traditional financial organization known for handling communications between more than 11,500 banks, not for moving money itself.

SWIFT's changing role

"The big development is SWIFT’s changing business model to cope with blockchain disintermediation," said Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter. “SWIFT, today, does not transfer value; it sends messages. Onchain, the message and the transfer are the same thing.

Acheson argued the new platform could act as a "switching" layer for digital currencies and tokenized assets, bridging otherwise siloed systems. However, she questioned whether SWIFT is still essential in a world of programmable money.

"Is SWIFT necessary in a tokenized financial system? No, it’s not—but it does have connections with virtually all global banks," she said.

Onboarding banks to stablecoins

Those connections could give SWIFT an edge as banks look for a path into the blockchain economy.

"The industry is moving at a rapid pace, and stablecoins are being adopted globally at such a speed that traditional banks are having to take notice,” said Barry O’Sullivan, director of banking and payments at OpenPayd.

SWIFT said over 30 financial institutions are already engaged with the project. O’Sullivan expects more to follow as demand and regulatory clarity increase. "Adoption, interoperability and regulatory alignment will take time," he said. "However, SWIFT is clearly positioning itself to play a meaningful role in shaping the evolving stablecoin and tokenised asset ecosystem."

SWIFT's platform could also "materially lower" technical barriers and integration costs for financial institutions that want to embed stablecoins into their operations, said David Duong, head of institutional research at Coinbase.

O’Sullivan noted that the platform could bring "some standardization to the global stablecoin ecosystem," though fragmentation will likely persist. "Existing private stablecoins, CBDCs and regional solutions may continue to operate in parallel,” he said.

Years in the making

Duong described SWIFT's initiative as a "watershed moment" for both crypto and traditional finance, but reminded that it has been years in the making. The company has been experimenting with distributed ledger technology since 2017, Duong said, including conducting pilot projects with Chainlink, tokenized securities platforms Clearstream and SETL and interoperability tests with CBDCs. Developing its own shared ledger platform appears to be the next stage in that long-running transition, Duong said.

Still, not everyone may see SWIFT as a neutral player. Its role in enforcing sanctions has led to distrust in countries where banks were cut off from the network, Acheson said.

"It’s not clear that its offering would stop the payment systems fragmentation, given global distrust following SWIFT’s role in enforcing U.S. and EU sanctions,” she argued.

Even so, SWIFT’s decision underscores that the lines between traditional and blockchain finance are increasingly getting intertwined and the world’s largest financial institutions are – slowly, then suddenly – taking initiative to stay relevant.

The team behind USD1, the fast-growing stablecoin launched by Trump family-linked DeFi project World Liberty Financial, has fallen behind on updating its monthly attestation reports, a critical transparency measure for investors and regulators, according to NYDIG.

As of early October, the most recent report available is from July. That delay puts USD1 out of step with rivals like Circle’s USDC, which published reserve data through August, and Tether, which reports quarterly, Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, said in a report.

“For a project of USD1’s stature, up-to-date attestations are non-negotiable,” Cipolaro wrote.

CoinDesk has reached out to BitGo and World Liberty Financial for comment but hasn’t heard back by the time of writing.

The BitGo connection

While BitGo Trust oversees custody of the stablecoin’s reserves, the issuer, BitGo Technologies, hasn’t explained the gap in reporting. The lapse is notable given USD1’s rising profile and $2.7 billion in supply, he noted.

At the same time, USD1’s token distribution suggests most of its traction is offshore. NYDIG claims that its analysis of top wallets shows that roughly 78% of the supply sits in addresses linked to overseas exchanges.

Looking ahead, USD1’s structure may conflict with the incoming GENIUS Act. The law, expected to take effect by early 2027, limits stablecoin issuance to subsidiaries of regulated banks or state-qualified entities.

NYDIG also said that BitGo Technologies doesn’t currently appear fit either in the regulated banks or state-qualified entities category, meaning structural changes may be required, Cipolaro wrote.